The weekend sell-off in the BTC rate vs the dollar had all the hallmarks of a selling extreme triggered by the dumping of BTC into the market. In this case it was triggered by the sale of 26,000 bitcoins in the days leading up to the weekend. The quick bounce following this rout confirms this assessment.
All indicators are pointing to at least a medium term rally and a view that we have probably seen the low for the year. While indicators are positive we don’t believe this is a rally that need to be chased. We expect to see opportunities to pick up BTC vs $ at between $320/$330 before the market rallies back up to the $500 level.
Above the $500 level we run into significant overhang and may have difficulty breaking through this in the short term.